The Polarized Vote
Philipp Rehm, assistant professor of political science and author of a new study on the political polarization in the U.S., suggests that changes in the labor market since the 1970s has helped create more Republican and Democratic partisans and fewer independents. Rehm’s findings are published in the British Journal of Political Science.
Rehm estimated that slightly more than half of Americans could be counted as natural partisans in 1968, based on their income and job security. But by 2008, the number of natural partisans had climbed to include nearly two-thirds of all Americans.
The growth in partisanship has to do with people's current income and - importantly - their expectations of job security, said Philipp Rehm. At one time, many voters were "cross-pressured" - when looking at what they earned now and their risks of losing that income, they felt torn between Republican and Democratic policies. The result is that they were natural independents, Rehm said.
But since the 1970s, a growing number of workers have found their current incomes and beliefs about their job security have converged - in other words, their preferences aligned completely behind either Democratic or Republican policies. Rehm calls these people natural partisans.